The frequency of negative power prices is predicted to reach record levels across parts of Europe after solar output hit new highs in the second quarter this year.
That is the key takeaway from a report on the European electricity market from energy data analyst Montel Analytics.
The study highlighted a growing trend of negative prices across Europe, with Sweden’s SE2 price zone recording the largest number (506 hours) in the six months to the end of June.
Montel’s research also shows:
the number of negative hours exceeded 300 in Spain (459), the Netherlands (408), Germany (389), France (363), Belgium (361), Finland (363), Denmark 1 (326).
almost all European countries are seeing an increased number of such hours this year, with this trend likely to continue.
The trend of below-zero prices was driven primarily by rising levels of solar generation, which hit a record high in the three months to June.
Montel Analytics director Jean-Paul Harreman said: “Negative power prices are forecast to reach record levels across parts of Europe in Q3. This trend is being driven by continued renewable capacity expansion, particularly in solar, without a commensurate increase in underlying demand.
The Montel report also highlighted regional stress points that were impacting hydro and thermal generation, with central, southern and southeastern Europe currently experiencing lower reservoir levels compared to the same period in 2024.
Geopolitical developments are expected to remain a dominant force in European power markets, with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, instability in parts of the Middle East and evolving energy policy positions in the US.
Jean-Paul added: “For industrial buyers and large consumers, this quarter may be marked by significant price volatility. Energy Intensive Industries are advised to monitor market developments closely and evaluate exposure to peak pricing events, particularly during late afternoon and early evening.”
