The Government faces big challenges to its low carbon plans – especially in the court of public opinion, argues Myles Bailey, Associate Director at the CT Group.
The UK’s low carbon and renewables industry is understandably optimistic about the new Government’s plans for energy and climate change.
A sense of momentum has been created with its early moves, such as ending the ban on new onshore wind projects in England. However, the CCC’s recent confirmation that the UK is not on course to meet its 2030 emissions target reminds us of the scale of the challenge.
Included in the CCC’s warning was that UK onshore wind installations need to double and solar installations must increase by five times.1
Whatever happens in Whitehall, the renewables industry needs to understand that winning public support will increasingly decide whether we can make serious steps towards realising the 2030 goal (and the economic opportunity it presents to low carbon generators).
It also needs to be aware that it cannot take the Government’s backing for granted, due to how changes in public opinion could impact the Government’s approach between now and the next General Election.
The renewables industry must do everything in its power to ensure that politicians do not see public opinion moving against it. Or else it may find that the political cost of backing its projects is deemed too high by decision makers.
Due to the increasing number of marginal seats in Parliament, local opposition to projects may mean that, even if the Government puts in place a policy framework to better support renewables, deployment will remain difficult.
This is illustrated by Green party leader and recently elected MP, Adrian Ramsay, openly and vocally opposing new transmission system infrastructure in his Waveney Valley constituency. Despite this infrastructure being central to plans for decarbonising the UK’s power system.
At the 2024 General Election, the number of seats with a majority of less than 5,000 rose from 153 in 2019 to 255. The UK electorate has demonstrated its willingness to switch between Labour and the Conservatives between election cycles, as we saw in the Red Wall at the General Election in 2019 and the Blue Wall in 2024.
Further, the electorate has also shown its willingness to look at alternatives: Parties other than the Conservatives, Labour or the Liberal Democrats gained 30.4% of the vote at the last General Election, the highest percentage since 1918.2 This backdrop presents the temptation for politicians, even those who personally or privately believe in the low carbon transition, to oppose renewable energy projects in their constituencies to try and secure support.
Government backbenchers will be vulnerable to this as well. With 412 MPs the Government’s powers of patronage will be severely stretched. There are not enough government jobs or committee chair positions for every Labour MP who is likely to want one.
If faced with major local opposition to a renewable project in their constituency, it would be only human for Labour MPs without much realistic hope of holding a position where they can make other changes, to waver in holding the Government line. Particularly in the face of organised, angry, and active constituents who their political opponents will be making every effort to ally with.
Loyalty and ideology are powerful forces but, as the example of Adrian Ramsay shows, people become MPs to achieve specific changes, and nobody wants to lose their seat without having a chance to do so.
At some stage this desire to achieve lasting change is likely to impact the thinking of the Government frontbenches too.
I do not share the view that Labour’s 2024 victory was broad and shallow. Instead of pilling up votes in urban areas as it has historically, Labour effectively distributed its vote. There is no reason why it could not do something similar again.
However, by the same token, and with reference to my comments about the electorate’s volatility and its willingness to examine alternatives to the major parties, there is no reason to believe it will be straightforward for Labour to maintain its 2024 voter coalition.
Low expectations among the public should mean Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership has a trial period, in which the majority are not expecting things to be significantly better than they have been. CT research shows that only 19% of people expect him to do a much better job of running the country than his predecessor. However, this trial period will not last forever.
According to the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS)’s analysis of the 2024 Labour manifesto, on current forecasts and – having promised to borrow an extra £17.5 billion over five years to fund its green prosperity plan – under its fiscal rules the Government has no more room for increasing spending beyond what was planned by the last government.3
It can therefore be expected that midway through this parliament the Government’s popularity will come under pressure.
In these circumstances, it would be a huge gamble for the renewables industry to depend solely on the Government’s willingness to call up projects to consent to them.
It must work to create the environment in which politicians, at all levels, can feel able to support its efforts. Or else risk facing continued frustration about how fast and how far low carbon deployment in the UK can go.
References
1. CCC Press Release, 18 July 2024
2. Statisa.com, Share of votes in general elections in the United Kingdom from 1918 to 2024, 5 July 2024
3. IFS, Labour Party manifesto: an initial response, 13 July 2024
