Will there be a major ‘greenlash’ under the new US administration’? Matt Konieczny, Head of Clean Power Products and Partnerships at Watershed, examines the issues at play.
The tenor of executive orders from the Trump administration on clean power has been clear and compounding: the administration is putting a renewed focus on fossil fuels and directing cuts to programmes and policies aimed at driving clean power innovation and adoption.
Most pointedly, the administration has attempted to withhold federal funding for climate and clean-energy projects previously approved by Congress.
How should we think about the forecast for clean power in light of these shifts? These are the factors at play.
Private sector is still in the driver’s seat
When looking to the future of demand for clean power, it is the private sector rather than the administration that bears the greatest influence. Since 2014, corporate and industrial buyers have signed 100 GW of renewable contracts, and last year almost half of new US renewable contracts had corporate offtakers.
And the appetite is still growing—Deloitte estimates data centre expansion alone will need another 44 GW of clean capacity by 2030, pulling ever more private capital into wind, solar and storage.
Legal challenges are successfully mitigating impact in some cases
In April, a Trump-appointed judge ruled that the administration unlawfully froze climate and infrastructure grants, ordering an immediate release of funds awarded under the IRA and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.
Since its launch, the IRA has catalysed hundreds of billions of dollars in investment in renewables, 80% of which were invested in swing or red states. These investments also came with job creation. 1.5 million jobs were set to be created by 2030.
The April ruling against the Trump executive order means that all IRA + IIJA grants must at least begin to flow again. The ruling protects projects across all sectors—from urban forestry to building decarbonisation.
With this ruling all eyes now point to an upcoming judgement on the Environmental Protection Agency’s $20B in climate grants. The legal process takes time and likely will not redirect all executive orders pertaining to clean power, but each successful legal challenge shows that obstructing the progress of renewable energy will be more complex for the administration than simply signing executive orders.
However, friction is growing on the supply side
For the foreseeable future, demand will significantly outpace supply in the clean power market, leading to higher prices and curbing potential.
According to the International Energy Agency, electricity demand is set to grow 6x faster than all other energy demand. In the EU and US, demand for electricity is being driven by computing demand – data centres and AI.
The impact of tariffs
Tariffs will put significant upward price pressure on clean power. A significant portion of solar and wind farm components are imported; currently, more than 80% of solar panels in the US are manufactured in China.
Tariffs are also having a dampening impact on the global economy, which could push down competing oil and gas prices. While in the short term that may appear to favour oil and gas, investment decisions for new power plants are made on a multi-decade basis. It remains to be seen how tariffs will impact various power plant costs in the medium and long-term.
Across all of this, the factor that is most damaging from the Trump administration’s executive orders is the volatility itself. Infrastructure investors want stability and predictability above all else. The frequent and drastic changes to US energy policy discourage investors and drive financing costs higher, which will most negatively impact energy projects that require the most debt: renewables.
The 2025 clean power playbook: What companies should do now
We are now entering the second phase of the energy transition. The low-hanging fruit, prime locations for renewables and easy grid access points, have already been picked. And the success of renewables has created multi-year permitting backlogs for new projects. Companies wanting to source renewables will face more complex processes. Those who pursue diversified sourcing approaches and who learn quickly will have a competitive advantage.
Second, look to solutions that provide leverage. We’ve seen first-hand how strategies like aggregated buying and novel financial products can make renewables accessible to more types of companies. There is undeniable appetite outside of the traditional big buyers. Project developers and financiers will innovate to serve these buyers. Solution providers will make it easier for new market entrants to take advantage of incentives like those in the IRA.
Finally, embedding energy considerations into corporate risk frameworks will thrive in this next phase. We’ve seen how events like the Ukraine war and trends like data centre growth can make energy costs a sudden priority for CFOs. Companies will seek better data infrastructure to identify emissions hotspots that match opportunities for low-cost clean power.
The most effective antidote to uncertainty is information. Invest in sustainability data to give you a clearer view of a rapidly changing landscape and to identify the opportunities that best fit your business.
Clean power isn’t disappearing under the actions of the second Trump administration, it’s entering a more complex, and business-driven phase. The winners will be those who learn to navigate, adapt, and lead in this evolving terrain.
